About GridironProjector NFL

GridironProjector NFL is an independent NFL projection model built by Dixon App Studio. Every game gets a projected score, margin, total and win probability. Projections are frozen before kickoff and graded afterwards on the scorecard, so the model's record is public.

The model

Teams are rated from every play since 2009 (expected points added and points, opponent adjusted), starting each season from last year's ratings regressed toward average. A quarterback value system adjusts for who is actually starting, and home field, travel, rest and weather are added with weights fitted on past seasons. Win chances come from a curve calibrated on history, so the model does not hand out 99% favourites. The full method, the six-season walk-forward backtest and this season's graded results are on the methodology and track record page.

How it is graded

Before each kickoff the projected margin and total are saved and never edited. Once the game is final, the scorecard checks whether the projected winner won and how far the margin and total were from the result. The methodology page adds the long-run backtest: winner accuracy, average margin error, Brier score, log loss, a calibration table and a comparison with the market's closing line.

Data

Play-by-play, schedules, results, player and team stats, injuries and depth charts come from nflverse (CC BY 4.0). Live scores and in-game detail come from a public NFL scoreboard feed. Game weather comes from the National Weather Service (US stadiums) and MET Norway (CC BY 4.0, international venues). We are not affiliated with the NFL, any team, media company or sportsbook.

What the numbers are for

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

We show market lines only as neutral data next to the model, with no picks and no links to sportsbooks. If gambling stops being fun, the National Problem Gambling Helpline is 1-800-522-4700 (ncpgambling.org).