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NFL Playoff Predictions 2026: Projected Wins & Playoff Chances

After Week 4 · 10,000 simulated seasons · model updated Oct 2

We play the rest of the 2026 regular season 10,000 times. Games already played count as they finished; every remaining game is decided by the same win probability shown on its game prediction, with each team's strength nudged up or down at random in every simulated season, because no rating is exact. The projected wins column is the average final record, with the 10th to 90th percentile range underneath.

Right now Jaguars (19%) are the most likely AFC No. 1 seed and Vikings (36%) the most likely in the NFC. 1 teams make the playoffs in at least 80% of simulations. The closest calls, near a coin flip: Browns (51%), Eagles (47%), Bengals (54%), Patriots (45%).

Team strength comes from the power rankings. Playoff spots go to the four division winners and three wild cards per conference; ties on wins are settled by a coin flip because the NFL's tiebreakers are not modelled, so treat very close percentages as equal.

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

AFC

AFC East

TeamNowProj.DivPlayoff
Bills3-010.47–1456%71%
Patriots1-28.65–1226%45%
Jets1-27.44–1114%28%
Dolphins0-35.02–83%7%

AFC North

TeamNowProj.DivPlayoff
Ravens2-19.56–1330%56%
Bengals2-19.46–1329%54%
Browns3-19.36–1326%51%
Steelers2-28.35–1215%38%

AFC South

TeamNowProj.DivPlayoff
Jaguars2-110.87–1462%76%
Colts1-28.15–1118%37%
Texans0-37.84–1116%33%
Titans0-35.52–94%10%

AFC West

TeamNowProj.DivPlayoff
Chiefs3-010.27–1338%66%
Broncos2-19.66–1329%58%
Raiders3-09.56–1329%55%
Chargers0-36.03–94%13%

NFC

NFC East

TeamNowProj.DivPlayoff
Eagles2-18.75–1236%47%
Giants2-18.05–1127%37%
Commanders1-27.44–1119%29%
Cowboys1-27.34–1118%27%

NFC North

TeamNowProj.DivPlayoff
Vikings3-012.39–1563%88%
Bears2-110.27–1322%66%
Lions2-18.85–1213%45%
Packers1-27.04–103%20%

NFC South

TeamNowProj.DivPlayoff
Saints1-28.25–1235%43%
Panthers1-27.95–1130%39%
Falcons1-27.34–1122%29%
Buccaneers0-36.13–1013%18%

NFC West

TeamNowProj.DivPlayoff
Seahawks2-111.28–1448%79%
49ers3-010.57–1434%68%
Rams1-28.65–1213%42%
Cardinals1-27.34–115%24%

Does this work? The backtest

Before publishing, we froze the model at three points of every season from 2012 to 2025, simulated the rest of the season with only what was known at that moment, and compared the projections with what happened. The size of the random strength nudge was picked on 2012-2019 only; the numbers below are the untouched 2020-2025 seasons (192 team-seasons per row).

Projected fromWin total miss (avg)Playoff Brier
Preseason2.41last season's wins 2.86 · everyone .500 2.650.224record only 0.250
After week 41.90current win pace 2.65 · wins + half the rest 2.150.160record only 0.172
After week 91.46current win pace 1.62 · wins + half the rest 1.670.134record only 0.135

Lower is better in both columns. Win total miss is the average number of wins the projection was off by; the grey numbers are simple baselines. Brier scores the playoff percentages (0 = perfect, 0.25 = a coin flip on everyone); the baseline knows only each team's current record and how often teams with that record made the playoffs in 2012-2019. After Week 4 the model misses final win totals by 1.9 wins on average, against 2.1 for the best baseline. By midseason the record itself carries most of the information and the model's edge on playoff odds is small.

Are the playoff percentages honest? (2020-2025, after Week 4)

We saidTeamsAvg. chanceMade it
0–10%176%6%
10–30%5520%14%
30–50%4542%42%
50–70%3861%61%
70–90%3079%87%
90–100%793%100%

What this cannot see: injuries and quarterback changes after today, trades, teams resting starters in Week 18, and the real tiebreakers. Past seasons in the backtest use the 6-team playoff field through 2019 and 7 teams from 2020. The full method is in pipeline/season_backtest.py and on the track record page.