GridironProjector NFL
EPA-driven NFL score projections
Opponent-adjusted points and EPA ratings from nflverse play-by-play, shrunk toward preseason priors, with a quarterback value system, rest, travel and weather. Home field is about 2.6 points before travel, fitted on past seasons. Win chances are calibrated on history. How it works and its track record.
Pattern tags
Situations that beat games on similar spreads in our 2020–25 backtest. How they're graded
Stat trends
Team-stat matchups that beat games on similar lines, 2016–25, with a 2025 holdout. 🎯 Tail leans are experimental small-sample rules (may be noise). A result gets a chip only when it has at least one rule. Records and what failed
Matchup alerts
Tap one to keep only the games carrying that badge.
Slider filters
Drag either end to keep only the games whose numbers land inside every range.
Loading the schedule…
NFL Week 4 at a glance
Week 4 of the 2026 NFL season has 16 games on our board. The closest projected matchup is Colts at Commanders (0.5-point margin), the highest projected total is Colts at Commanders (52.8 points) and the lowest is Steelers at Browns (39.5). 7 games are rated a toss-up (neither side above 58%).
1 game has finished so far: the model picked the winner in 1 of them (100%).
- Colts at Commanders — We project Colts 27-26, a 0.5-point margin with 52.8 total points; Colts win 52% of the time.
- Cardinals at Giants — We project Cardinals 22-22, a 0.7-point margin with 43.7 total points; Cardinals win 52% of the time.
- Lions at Panthers — We project Lions 27-26, a 1.4-point margin with 52.4 total points; Lions win 55% of the time.
- Jaguars at Bengals — We project Jaguars 25-23, a 1.6-point margin with 47.8 total points; Jaguars win 55% of the time.
- Chiefs at Raiders — We project Chiefs 25-22, a 2.4-point margin with 47.2 total points; Chiefs win 58% of the time.
- Rams at Eagles — We project Rams 24-21, a 2.5-point margin with 44.9 total points; Rams win 58% of the time.
All Week 4 projections · NFL power rankings · Playoff predictions
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.