Matchup analysis
Our model projects Eagles 23, Cowboys 19 at Lincoln Financial Field in Week 7. That is a lean: Eagles win about 61% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.5 points and 42.3 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Cowboys are 1-2, scoring 29.3 and allowing 27.3 points per game (+2 per game). The Eagles are 2-1, scoring 18.3 and allowing 23 points per game (-4.7 per game).
Cowboys' strong offense (5th of 32, worth about 25.6 points against an average defense) meets Eagles' strong defense (8th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Cowboys puts up. Eagles' below-average offense (21st of 32, worth about 21.8 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Cowboys' struggling defense (32nd); that mismatch is where most of Eagles' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Cowboys by 13 and Eagles by 20 about 80% of the time.
The Eagles get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Eagles by about 0.9. The game is on ESPN / ABC.
More: Cowboys schedule · Eagles schedule · all Week 7 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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