Matchup analysis
Our model projects Steelers 21, Saints 21 at Stade de France in Week 7. That is a genuine toss-up: Steelers win about 50% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.1 points and 42.3 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Steelers are 2-2, scoring 19.3 and allowing 21.8 points per game (-2.5 per game). The Saints are 1-2, scoring 27 and allowing 27.7 points per game (-0.7 per game).
Saints' middle-of-the-pack defense (18th) should limit Steelers' below-average offense (24th of 32, worth about 21.5 points against an average defense). Expect Saints to find it hard going: Steelers' middle-of-the-pack defense (13th) outranks Saints' below-average offense (20th of 32, worth about 21.9 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Steelers by 17 and Saints by 17 about 80% of the time.
The Saints get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Steelers are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on NFL Net.
More: Steelers schedule · Saints schedule · all Week 7 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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