Matchup analysis
Our model projects Ravens 22, Bengals 21 at M&T Bank Stadium in Week 7. That is a genuine toss-up: Ravens win about 54% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.4 points and 42.9 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Bengals are 2-1, scoring 26.7 and allowing 21 points per game (+5.7 per game). The Ravens are 2-1, scoring 30.7 and allowing 26 points per game (+4.7 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Bengals' strong offense (9th of 32, worth about 25.2 points against an average defense) against Ravens' middle-of-the-pack defense (15th). Ravens' strong offense (4th of 32, worth about 25.7 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Bengals' below-average defense (24th); that mismatch is where most of Ravens' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Bengals by 16 and Ravens by 18 about 80% of the time.
The Ravens get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Bengals would be favoured by 1.2. The game is on CBS.
More: Bengals schedule · Ravens schedule · all Week 7 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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