Matchup analysis
Our model projects Vikings 26, Colts 18 at U.S. Bank Stadium in Week 7. That is a solid edge: Vikings win about 74% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8.2 points and 43.8 combined points.
The Colts are 1-2, scoring 24 and allowing 30.3 points per game (-6.3 per game). The Vikings are 3-0, scoring 23.7 and allowing 13.7 points per game (+10 per game).
Expect Colts to find it hard going: Vikings' elite defense (1st) outranks Colts' middle-of-the-pack offense (11th of 32, worth about 24.8 points against an average defense). Vikings' middle-of-the-pack offense (19th of 32, worth about 22.2 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Colts' struggling defense (30th); that mismatch is where most of Vikings' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Colts by 9 and Vikings by 25 about 80% of the time.
The Vikings get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Vikings by about 5.6. The game is on CBS.
More: Colts schedule · Vikings schedule · all Week 7 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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