Matchup analysis
Our model projects Jets 22, Dolphins 18 at MetLife Stadium in Week 7. That is a lean: Jets win about 62% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.9 points and 40.6 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Dolphins are 0-3, scoring 12 and allowing 28.7 points per game (-16.7 per game). The Jets are 1-2, scoring 21.3 and allowing 20.3 points per game (+1 per game).
Jets' below-average defense (23rd) should limit Dolphins' struggling offense (30th of 32, worth about 19.7 points against an average defense). Jets' struggling offense (28th of 32, worth about 19.9 points against an average defense) meets Dolphins' below-average defense (25th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Jets puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Dolphins by 13 and Jets by 21 about 80% of the time.
The Jets get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Jets by about 1.3. The game is on CBS.
More: Dolphins schedule · Jets schedule · all Week 7 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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