Matchup analysis
Our model projects Texans 22, Giants 17 at Reliant Stadium in Week 7. That is a lean: Texans win about 67% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.4 points and 39.4 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Giants are 2-1, scoring 15.3 and allowing 18.3 points per game (-3 per game). The Texans are 0-3, scoring 18 and allowing 25 points per game (-7 per game).
Expect Giants to find it hard going: Texans' strong defense (6th) outranks Giants' struggling offense (29th of 32, worth about 19.8 points against an average defense). Giants' middle-of-the-pack defense (14th) should limit Texans' below-average offense (22nd of 32, worth about 21.6 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Giants by 12 and Texans by 22 about 80% of the time.
The Texans get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Texans by about 2.8. The game is on FOX.
More: Giants schedule · Texans schedule · all Week 7 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.