Matchup analysis
Our model projects 49ers 22, Falcons 21 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Week 7. That is a genuine toss-up: 49ers win about 55% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.6 points and 42.9 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The 49ers are 3-0, scoring 32.7 and allowing 16.7 points per game (+16 per game). The Falcons are 1-2, scoring 17 and allowing 22.7 points per game (-5.7 per game).
49ers' elite offense (3rd of 32, worth about 25.9 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Falcons' middle-of-the-pack defense (19th); that mismatch is where most of 49ers' projected points come from. Expect Falcons to find it hard going: 49ers' middle-of-the-pack defense (10th) outranks Falcons' below-average offense (26th of 32, worth about 20.7 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between 49ers by 19 and Falcons by 15 about 80% of the time.
The Falcons get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The 49ers are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on FOX.
More: 49ers schedule · Falcons schedule · all Week 7 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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