Matchup analysis
Our model projects Panthers 24, Buccaneers 20 at Bank of America Stadium in Week 7. That is a lean: Panthers win about 63% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.1 points and 43.3 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Buccaneers are 0-3, scoring 20.7 and allowing 26.3 points per game (-5.6 per game). The Panthers are 1-2, scoring 29.7 and allowing 27.7 points per game (+2 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Buccaneers' middle-of-the-pack offense (16th of 32, worth about 22.7 points against an average defense) against Panthers' below-average defense (27th). Panthers' middle-of-the-pack offense (14th of 32, worth about 23 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Buccaneers' below-average defense (21st); that mismatch is where most of Panthers' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Buccaneers by 13 and Panthers by 21 about 80% of the time.
The Panthers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Panthers by about 1.5. The game is on FOX.
More: Buccaneers schedule · Panthers schedule · all Week 7 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.