Matchup analysis
Our model projects Broncos 23, Cardinals 21 at State Farm Stadium in Week 7. That is a genuine toss-up: Broncos win about 56% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.9 points and 44.2 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Broncos are 2-1, scoring 20 and allowing 23.3 points per game (-3.3 per game). The Cardinals are 1-2, scoring 21 and allowing 27 points per game (-6 per game).
Broncos' middle-of-the-pack offense (15th of 32, worth about 22.7 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Cardinals' struggling defense (28th); that mismatch is where most of Broncos' projected points come from. Expect Cardinals to find it hard going: Broncos' strong defense (7th) outranks Cardinals' middle-of-the-pack offense (18th of 32, worth about 22.4 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Broncos by 19 and Cardinals by 15 about 80% of the time.
The Cardinals get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Broncos are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBS.
More: Broncos schedule · Cardinals schedule · all Week 7 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.