Matchup analysis
Our model projects Lions 26, Packers 20 at Ford Field in Week 7. That is a solid edge: Lions win about 69% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.1 points and 45.8 combined points.
The Packers are 1-2, scoring 18.7 and allowing 30.3 points per game (-11.6 per game). The Lions are 2-1, scoring 31 and allowing 31.7 points per game (-0.7 per game).
Packers' middle-of-the-pack offense (17th of 32, worth about 22.5 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Lions' struggling defense (29th); that mismatch is where most of Packers' projected points come from. The most lopsided unit battle: Lions' elite offense (2nd of 32, worth about 27.3 points against an average defense) against Packers' below-average defense (22nd).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Packers by 11 and Lions by 23 about 80% of the time.
The Lions get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Lions by about 3.5. The game is on FOX.
More: Packers schedule · Lions schedule · all Week 7 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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