Matchup analysis
Our model projects Raiders 21, Rams 21 at Allegiant Stadium in Week 7. That is a genuine toss-up: Raiders win about 52% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.6 points and 42.3 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Rams are 1-2, scoring 20.3 and allowing 21 points per game (-0.7 per game). The Raiders are 3-0, scoring 29.3 and allowing 18 points per game (+11.3 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Rams' strong offense (8th of 32, worth about 25.2 points against an average defense) against Raiders' middle-of-the-pack defense (17th). Rams' strong defense (9th) should limit Raiders' below-average offense (23rd of 32, worth about 21.5 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Rams by 16 and Raiders by 18 about 80% of the time.
The Raiders get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Rams would be favoured by 2. The game is on FOX.
More: Rams schedule · Raiders schedule · all Week 7 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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