Matchup analysis
Our model projects Seahawks 22, Chiefs 14 at Lumen Field in Week 7. That is a solid edge: Seahawks win about 74% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8 points and 36.2 combined points.
The Chiefs are 3-0, scoring 29.3 and allowing 16.7 points per game (+12.6 per game). The Seahawks are 2-1, scoring 25 and allowing 16.7 points per game (+8.3 per game).
Seahawks' elite defense (2nd) should limit Chiefs' middle-of-the-pack offense (13th of 32, worth about 23.5 points against an average defense). Seahawks' strong offense (7th of 32, worth about 25.4 points against an average defense) meets Chiefs' strong defense (5th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Seahawks puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Chiefs by 9 and Seahawks by 25 about 80% of the time.
The Seahawks get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Seahawks by about 5.4. The game is on NBC.
More: Chiefs schedule · Seahawks schedule · all Week 7 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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