Matchup analysis
Our model projects Cowboys 25, Cardinals 24 at AT&T Stadium in Week 8. That is a genuine toss-up: Cowboys win about 54% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.1 points and 49.7 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Cardinals are 1-2, scoring 21 and allowing 27 points per game (-6 per game). The Cowboys are 1-2, scoring 29.3 and allowing 27.3 points per game (+2 per game).
Cardinals' middle-of-the-pack offense (18th of 32, worth about 22.4 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Cowboys' struggling defense (32nd); that mismatch is where most of Cardinals' projected points come from. The most lopsided unit battle: Cowboys' strong offense (5th of 32, worth about 25.6 points against an average defense) against Cardinals' struggling defense (28th).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Cardinals by 16 and Cowboys by 18 about 80% of the time.
The Cowboys get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Cardinals would be favoured by 1.5. The game is on FOX.
More: Cardinals schedule · Cowboys schedule · all Week 8 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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