Matchup analysis
Our model projects Jaguars 26, Colts 18 at EverBank Stadium in Week 8. That is a solid edge: Jaguars win about 74% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8.2 points and 43.8 combined points.
The Colts are 1-2, scoring 24 and allowing 30.3 points per game (-6.3 per game). The Jaguars are 2-1, scoring 27.3 and allowing 12 points per game (+15.3 per game).
Jaguars' strong defense (4th) should limit Colts' middle-of-the-pack offense (11th of 32, worth about 24.8 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Jaguars' strong offense (6th of 32, worth about 25.5 points against an average defense) against Colts' struggling defense (30th).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Colts by 9 and Jaguars by 25 about 80% of the time.
The Jaguars get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Jaguars by about 5.6. The game is on CBS.
More: Colts schedule · Jaguars schedule · all Week 8 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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