Matchup analysis
Our model projects Raiders 21, Jets 20 at MetLife Stadium in Week 8. That is a genuine toss-up: Raiders win about 51% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.4 points and 40.8 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Raiders are 3-0, scoring 29.3 and allowing 18 points per game (+11.3 per game). The Jets are 1-2, scoring 21.3 and allowing 20.3 points per game (+1 per game).
Raiders' below-average offense (23rd of 32, worth about 21.5 points against an average defense) meets Jets' below-average defense (23rd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Raiders puts up. Raiders' middle-of-the-pack defense (17th) should limit Jets' struggling offense (28th of 32, worth about 19.9 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Raiders by 17 and Jets by 17 about 80% of the time.
The Jets get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Raiders are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on FOX.
More: Raiders schedule · Jets schedule · all Week 8 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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