Matchup analysis
Our model projects Vikings 23, Lions 19 at Ford Field in Week 8. That is a lean: Vikings win about 63% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.2 points and 42.2 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Vikings are 3-0, scoring 23.7 and allowing 13.7 points per game (+10 per game). The Lions are 2-1, scoring 31 and allowing 31.7 points per game (-0.7 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Vikings' middle-of-the-pack offense (19th of 32, worth about 22.2 points against an average defense) against Lions' struggling defense (29th). Lions' elite offense (2nd of 32, worth about 27.3 points against an average defense) meets Vikings' elite defense (1st) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Lions puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Vikings by 21 and Lions by 13 about 80% of the time.
The Lions get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Vikings are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on FOX.
More: Vikings schedule · Lions schedule · all Week 8 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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