Matchup analysis
Our model projects Bengals 25, Titans 20 at Paycor Stadium in Week 8. That is a lean: Bengals win about 66% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.1 points and 44.1 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Titans are 0-3, scoring 12.3 and allowing 19.7 points per game (-7.4 per game). The Bengals are 2-1, scoring 26.7 and allowing 21 points per game (+5.7 per game).
Bengals' below-average defense (24th) should limit Titans' struggling offense (32nd of 32, worth about 18.3 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Bengals' strong offense (9th of 32, worth about 25.2 points against an average defense) against Titans' below-average defense (26th).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Titans by 12 and Bengals by 22 about 80% of the time.
The Bengals get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Bengals by about 2.5. The game is on CBS.
More: Titans schedule · Bengals schedule · all Week 8 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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