Matchup analysis
Our model projects Broncos 20, Chiefs 17 at Empower Field at Mile High in Week 8. That is a lean: Broncos win about 61% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.3 points and 37.3 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Chiefs are 3-0, scoring 29.3 and allowing 16.7 points per game (+12.6 per game). The Broncos are 2-1, scoring 20 and allowing 23.3 points per game (-3.3 per game).
Broncos' strong defense (7th) should limit Chiefs' middle-of-the-pack offense (13th of 32, worth about 23.5 points against an average defense). Expect Broncos to find it hard going: Chiefs' strong defense (5th) outranks Broncos' middle-of-the-pack offense (15th of 32, worth about 22.7 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Chiefs by 14 and Broncos by 20 about 80% of the time.
The Broncos get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Broncos by about 0.7. The game is on CBS.
More: Chiefs schedule · Broncos schedule · all Week 8 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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