Matchup analysis
Our model projects Seahawks 22, Bears 18 at Lumen Field in Week 8. That is a lean: Seahawks win about 63% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.1 points and 40.1 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Bears are 2-1, scoring 29.7 and allowing 17.7 points per game (+12 per game). The Seahawks are 2-1, scoring 25 and allowing 16.7 points per game (+8.3 per game).
Expect Bears to find it hard going: Seahawks' elite defense (2nd) outranks Bears' middle-of-the-pack offense (10th of 32, worth about 25.1 points against an average defense). Seahawks' strong offense (7th of 32, worth about 25.4 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Bears' middle-of-the-pack defense (11th); that mismatch is where most of Seahawks' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Bears by 13 and Seahawks by 21 about 80% of the time.
The Seahawks get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Seahawks by about 1.5. The game is on ESPN.
More: Bears schedule · Seahawks schedule · all Week 8 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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