Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Rams 27, 49ers 25 at Melbourne Cricket Ground in Week 1. That is a genuine toss-up: Rams win about 56% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2 points and 52.8 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The 49ers are 3-0, scoring 32.7 and allowing 16.7 points per game (+16 per game). The Rams are 1-2, scoring 20.3 and allowing 21 points per game (-0.7 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: 49ers' elite offense (3rd of 32, worth about 25.9 points against an average defense) against Rams' strong defense (9th). Rams' strong offense (8th of 32, worth about 25.2 points against an average defense) meets 49ers' middle-of-the-pack defense (10th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Rams puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between 49ers by 15 and Rams by 19 about 80% of the time.
The Rams get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field 49ers would be favoured by 0.6. The game is on Netflix.
Result: 49ers 27, Rams 7. 49ers won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 22 points).
More: 49ers schedule · Rams schedule · all Week 1 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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