NFL Week 1 Predictions & Projected Scores (2026)

Updated Oct 2, 2026

Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season has 16 games on our board. The closest projected matchup is Dolphins at Raiders (0.1-point margin), the highest projected total is 49ers at Rams (52.8 points) and the lowest is Browns at Jaguars (42.8). 8 games are rated a toss-up (neither side above 58%).

16 games have finished so far: the model picked the winner in 11 of them (69%).

Power rankings · Playoff predictions · How accurate are we?

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Every game

FinalNBC
Patriots20final 10
Seahawks25final 13
Final: Patriots 10, Seahawks 13. We projected Seahawks 25-20 (64%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: 74°F, Wind 6 mph.Recorded at kickoff · nflverse
Our number
SEA by 4.5
Total 45.1
Closing consensus
SEA -3
Total 44.5
Our number — SEA by 4.5 · Total 45.1 | Closing consensus — SEA -3 · Total 44.5
Final SEA by 3. The spread was a push. 23 points — under the 44.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
Line: Closing consensus via nflverse closing lines, Sep 26, 10:34 AM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Seahawks 64% · total 45.1Full preview →
FinalNetflix
49ers25final 27
Rams27final 7
Final: 49ers 27, Rams 7. We projected Rams 27-25 (56%) — the model missed this one.
Game-time weather: 57°F, Wind 4 mph.Recorded at kickoff for Melbourne · nflverse
Our number
LA by 2
Total 52.8
Closing consensus
LA -3.5
Total 47.5
Our number — LA by 2 · Total 52.8 | Closing consensus — LA -3.5 · Total 47.5
Final SF by 20. SF covered the spread. 34 points — under the 47.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
Line: Closing consensus via nflverse closing lines, Sep 26, 10:34 AM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Rams 56% · total 52.8Full preview →
FinalFOX
Buccaneers24final 27
Bengals26final 33
Final: Buccaneers 27, Bengals 33. We projected Bengals 26-24 (59%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: 85°F, Wind 7 mph.Recorded at kickoff · nflverse
Our number
CIN by 2.8
Total 49.9
Closing consensus
CIN -3.5
Total 50.5
Our number — CIN by 2.8 · Total 49.9 | Closing consensus — CIN -3.5 · Total 50.5
Final CIN by 6. CIN covered the spread. 60 points — over the 50.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
Line: Closing consensus via nflverse closing lines, Sep 26, 10:34 AM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Bengals 59% · total 49.8Full preview →
FinalFOX
Saints21final 30
Lions28final 31
Final: Saints 30, Lions 31. We projected Lions 28-21 (71%) — winner called correctly.
Indoors (dome).
Our number
DET by 6.8
Total 48.7
Closing consensus
DET -7
Total 49.5
Our number — DET by 6.8 · Total 48.7 | Closing consensus — DET -7 · Total 49.5
Final DET by 1. NO covered the spread. 61 points — over the 49.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
Line: Closing consensus via nflverse closing lines, Sep 26, 10:34 AM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Lions 71% · total 48.6Full preview →
FinalCBS
Jets22final 23
Titans23final 10
Final: Jets 23, Titans 10. We projected Titans 23-22 (52%) — the model missed this one.
Game-time weather: 90°F, Wind 2 mph.Recorded at kickoff · nflverse
Our number
TEN by 0.5
Total 45
Closing consensus
TEN -1.5
Total 39.5
Our number — TEN by 0.5 · Total 45 | Closing consensus — TEN -1.5 · Total 39.5
Final NYJ by 13. NYJ covered the spread. 33 points — under the 39.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
Line: Closing consensus via nflverse closing lines, Sep 26, 10:34 AM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Titans 52% · total 45Full preview →
FinalCBS
Ravens26final 41
Colts27final 23
Final: Ravens 41, Colts 23. We projected Colts 27-26 (51%) — the model missed this one.
Our number
Even
Total 52.8
Closing consensus
BAL -3
Total 48.5
Our number — Even · Total 52.8 | Closing consensus — BAL -3 · Total 48.5
Final BAL by 18. BAL covered the spread. 64 points — over the 48.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
Line: Closing consensus via nflverse closing lines, Sep 26, 10:34 AM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Colts 51% · total 52.8Full preview →
FinalFOX
Falcons18final 13
Steelers25final 20
Final: Falcons 13, Steelers 20. We projected Steelers 25-18 (73%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: 77°F, Wind 4 mph.Recorded at kickoff · nflverse
Our number
PIT by 7.8
Total 43
Closing consensus
PIT -6.5
Total 40.5
Our number — PIT by 7.8 · Total 43 | Closing consensus — PIT -6.5 · Total 40.5
Final PIT by 7. PIT covered the spread. 33 points — under the 40.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
Line: Closing consensus via nflverse closing lines, Sep 26, 10:34 AM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Steelers 73% · total 43Full preview →
FinalFOX
Bears24final 59
Panthers22final 37
Final: Bears 59, Panthers 37. We projected Bears 24-22 (56%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: 89°F, Wind 2 mph.Recorded at kickoff · nflverse
Our number
CHI by 2
Total 45.6
Closing consensus
CHI -3
Total 47.5
Our number — CHI by 2 · Total 45.6 | Closing consensus — CHI -3 · Total 47.5
Final CHI by 22. CHI covered the spread. 96 points — over the 47.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
Line: Closing consensus via nflverse closing lines, Sep 26, 10:34 AM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Bears 56% · total 45.6Full preview →

FinalCBS
Browns18final 10
Jaguars25final 34
Final: Browns 10, Jaguars 34. We projected Jaguars 25-18 (72%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: 89°F, Wind 3 mph.Recorded at kickoff · nflverse
Our number
JAX by 7.2
Total 42.8
Closing consensus
JAX -8.5
Total 40.5
Our number — JAX by 7.2 · Total 42.8 | Closing consensus — JAX -8.5 · Total 40.5
Final JAX by 24. JAX covered the spread. 44 points — over the 40.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
Line: Closing consensus via nflverse closing lines, Sep 26, 10:34 AM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Jaguars 72% · total 42.8Full preview →
FinalCBS
Bills23final 36
Texans25final 31
Final: Bills 36, Texans 31. We projected Texans 25-23 (55%) — the model missed this one.
Our number
HOU by 1.5
Total 48.1
Closing consensus
BUF -1.5
Total 44.5
Our number — HOU by 1.5 · Total 48.1 | Closing consensus — BUF -1.5 · Total 44.5
Final BUF by 5. BUF covered the spread. 67 points — over the 44.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
Line: Closing consensus via nflverse closing lines, Sep 26, 10:34 AM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Texans 55% · total 48.1Full preview →
FinalFOX
Dolphins23final 13
Raiders23final 27
Final: Dolphins 13, Raiders 27. We projected Raiders 23-23 (50%) — winner called correctly.
Indoors (dome).
Our number
Even
Total 45.3
Closing consensus
LV -3
Total 40.5
Our number — Even · Total 45.3 | Closing consensus — LV -3 · Total 40.5
Final LV by 14. LV covered the spread. 40 points — under the 40.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
Line: Closing consensus via nflverse closing lines, Sep 26, 10:34 AM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Raiders 50% · total 45.3Full preview →
FinalCBS
Packers22final 22
Vikings26final 39
Final: Packers 22, Vikings 39. We projected Vikings 26-22 (62%) — winner called correctly.
Indoors (dome).
Our number
MIN by 3.8
Total 47.2
Closing consensus
MIN -1.5
Total 46.5
Our number — MIN by 3.8 · Total 47.2 | Closing consensus — MIN -1.5 · Total 46.5
Final MIN by 17. MIN covered the spread. 61 points — over the 46.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
Line: Closing consensus via nflverse closing lines, Sep 26, 10:34 AM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Vikings 62% · total 47.2Full preview →
FinalFOX
Commanders20final 22
Eagles27final 24
Final: Commanders 22, Eagles 24. We projected Eagles 27-20 (68%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: 82°F, Wind 7 mph.Recorded at kickoff · nflverse
Our number
PHI by 6
Total 46.9
Closing consensus
PHI -6
Total 43.5
Our number — PHI by 6 · Total 46.9 | Closing consensus — PHI -6 · Total 43.5
Final PHI by 2. WAS covered the spread. 46 points — over the 43.5. Our number and the book's were equally close. Our total was closer.
Line: Closing consensus via nflverse closing lines, Sep 26, 10:34 AM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Eagles 68% · total 46.9Full preview →
FinalCBS
Cardinals20final 26
Chargers27final 14
Final: Cardinals 26, Chargers 14. We projected Chargers 27-20 (72%) — the model missed this one.
Indoors (dome).
Our number
LAC by 7.4
Total 46.3
Closing consensus
LAC -8.5
Total 47.5
Our number — LAC by 7.4 · Total 46.3 | Closing consensus — LAC -8.5 · Total 47.5
Final ARI by 12. ARI covered the spread. 40 points — under the 47.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
Line: Closing consensus via nflverse closing lines, Sep 26, 10:34 AM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Chargers 72% · total 46.4Full preview →
FinalNBC
Cowboys25final 20
Giants26final 28
Final: Cowboys 20, Giants 28. We projected Giants 26-25 (52%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: 80°F, Wind 7 mph.Recorded at kickoff · nflverse
Our number
NYG by 0.6
Total 51.5
Closing consensus
DAL -3
Total 47.5
Our number — NYG by 0.6 · Total 51.5 | Closing consensus — DAL -3 · Total 47.5
Final NYG by 8. NYG covered the spread. 48 points — over the 47.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
Line: Closing consensus via nflverse closing lines, Sep 26, 10:34 AM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Giants 52% · total 51.4Full preview →
FinalESPN / ABC
Broncos21final 10
Chiefs23final 31
Final: Broncos 10, Chiefs 31. We projected Chiefs 23-21 (55%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: 91°F, Wind 13 mph.Recorded at kickoff · nflverse
Our number
KC by 1.6
Total 43.3
Closing consensus
KC -2.5
Total 42.5
Our number — KC by 1.6 · Total 43.3 | Closing consensus — KC -2.5 · Total 42.5
Final KC by 21. KC covered the spread. 41 points — under the 42.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
Line: Closing consensus via nflverse closing lines, Sep 26, 10:34 AM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Chiefs 55% · total 43.4Full preview →

How these numbers are made

Each team gets offense and defense ratings in points and in expected points added per play, adjusted for opponent strength and started from last season's ratings regressed toward average. Quarterback changes, home field and travel, rest and weather are added with weights fitted on past seasons, and the margin becomes a calibrated win probability. The book line under each game (DraftKings when available, otherwise the consensus or the first book, each named with its source) is neutral market data shown for comparison. See methodology and track record and the season scorecard for how the model has actually done.

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