Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Steelers 25, Falcons 18 at Acrisure Stadium in Week 1. That is a solid edge: Steelers win about 73% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.8 points and 43 combined points.
The Falcons are 1-2, scoring 17 and allowing 22.7 points per game (-5.7 per game). The Steelers are 2-2, scoring 19.3 and allowing 21.8 points per game (-2.5 per game).
Steelers' middle-of-the-pack defense (13th) should limit Falcons' below-average offense (26th of 32, worth about 20.7 points against an average defense). Expect Steelers to find it hard going: Falcons' middle-of-the-pack defense (19th) outranks Steelers' below-average offense (24th of 32, worth about 21.5 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Falcons by 9 and Steelers by 25 about 80% of the time.
The Steelers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Steelers by about 5.2. The game is on FOX.
Result: Falcons 13, Steelers 20. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 0.8 points and the total by 10.
More: Falcons schedule · Steelers schedule · all Week 1 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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