Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Colts 27, Ravens 26 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Week 1. That is a genuine toss-up: Colts win about 51% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.4 points and 52.8 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Ravens are 2-1, scoring 30.7 and allowing 26 points per game (+4.7 per game). The Colts are 1-2, scoring 24 and allowing 30.3 points per game (-6.3 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Ravens' strong offense (4th of 32, worth about 25.7 points against an average defense) against Colts' struggling defense (30th). Colts' middle-of-the-pack offense (11th of 32, worth about 24.8 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Ravens' middle-of-the-pack defense (15th); that mismatch is where most of Colts' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Ravens by 17 and Colts by 17 about 80% of the time.
The Colts get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Ravens would be favoured by 2.2. The game is on CBS.
Result: Ravens 41, Colts 23. Ravens won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 18.4 points).
More: Ravens schedule · Colts schedule · all Week 1 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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