Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Texans 25, Bills 23 at Reliant Stadium in Week 1. That is a genuine toss-up: Texans win about 55% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.5 points and 48.1 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Bills are 3-0, scoring 33.7 and allowing 26 points per game (+7.7 per game). The Texans are 0-3, scoring 18 and allowing 25 points per game (-7 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Bills' elite offense (1st of 32, worth about 28.1 points against an average defense) against Texans' strong defense (6th). Texans' below-average offense (22nd of 32, worth about 21.6 points against an average defense) meets Bills' below-average defense (20th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Texans puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Bills by 15 and Texans by 18 about 80% of the time.
The Texans get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Bills would be favoured by 1.1. The game is on CBS.
Result: Bills 36, Texans 31. Bills won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 6.5 points).
More: Bills schedule · Texans schedule · all Week 1 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.