Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Bears 24, Panthers 22 at Bank of America Stadium in Week 1. That is a genuine toss-up: Bears win about 56% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2 points and 45.6 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Bears are 2-1, scoring 29.7 and allowing 17.7 points per game (+12 per game). The Panthers are 1-2, scoring 29.7 and allowing 27.7 points per game (+2 per game).
Bears' middle-of-the-pack offense (10th of 32, worth about 25.1 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Panthers' below-average defense (27th); that mismatch is where most of Bears' projected points come from. Panthers' middle-of-the-pack offense (14th of 32, worth about 23 points against an average defense) meets Bears' middle-of-the-pack defense (11th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Panthers puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Bears by 19 and Panthers by 15 about 80% of the time.
The Panthers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Bears are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on FOX.
Result: Bears 59, Panthers 37. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 20 points and the total by 50.4.
More: Bears schedule · Panthers schedule · all Week 1 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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