Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Jaguars 25, Browns 18 at EverBank Stadium in Week 1. That is a solid edge: Jaguars win about 72% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.2 points and 42.8 combined points.
The Browns are 3-1, scoring 20.3 and allowing 23.8 points per game (-3.5 per game). The Jaguars are 2-1, scoring 27.3 and allowing 12 points per game (+15.3 per game).
Jaguars' strong defense (4th) should limit Browns' struggling offense (31st of 32, worth about 19.7 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Jaguars' strong offense (6th of 32, worth about 25.5 points against an average defense) against Browns' middle-of-the-pack defense (16th).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Browns by 10 and Jaguars by 24 about 80% of the time.
The Jaguars get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Jaguars by about 4.6. The game is on CBS.
Result: Browns 10, Jaguars 34. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 16.8 points and the total by 1.2.
More: Browns schedule · Jaguars schedule · all Week 1 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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