Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Lions 28, Saints 21 at Ford Field in Week 1. That is a solid edge: Lions win about 71% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.8 points and 48.6 combined points.
The Saints are 1-2, scoring 27 and allowing 27.7 points per game (-0.7 per game). The Lions are 2-1, scoring 31 and allowing 31.7 points per game (-0.7 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Saints' below-average offense (20th of 32, worth about 21.9 points against an average defense) against Lions' struggling defense (29th). Lions' elite offense (2nd of 32, worth about 27.3 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Saints' middle-of-the-pack defense (18th); that mismatch is where most of Lions' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Saints by 10 and Lions by 24 about 80% of the time.
The Lions get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Lions by about 4.2. The game is on FOX.
Result: Saints 30, Lions 31. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 5.8 points and the total by 12.4.
More: Saints schedule · Lions schedule · all Week 1 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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