Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Chargers 27, Cardinals 20 at SoFi Stadium in Week 1. That is a solid edge: Chargers win about 72% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.4 points and 46.4 combined points.
The Cardinals are 1-2, scoring 21 and allowing 27 points per game (-6 per game). The Chargers are 0-3, scoring 14.7 and allowing 25.3 points per game (-10.6 per game).
Chargers' middle-of-the-pack defense (12th) should limit Cardinals' middle-of-the-pack offense (18th of 32, worth about 22.4 points against an average defense). Chargers' below-average offense (27th of 32, worth about 19.9 points against an average defense) meets Cardinals' struggling defense (28th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Chargers puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Cardinals by 10 and Chargers by 24 about 80% of the time.
The Chargers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Chargers by about 4.8. The game is on CBS.
Result: Cardinals 26, Chargers 14. Cardinals won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 19.4 points).
More: Cardinals schedule · Chargers schedule · all Week 1 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.