Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Vikings 26, Packers 22 at U.S. Bank Stadium in Week 1. That is a lean: Vikings win about 62% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.8 points and 47.2 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Packers are 1-2, scoring 18.7 and allowing 30.3 points per game (-11.6 per game). The Vikings are 3-0, scoring 23.7 and allowing 13.7 points per game (+10 per game).
Expect Packers to find it hard going: Vikings' elite defense (1st) outranks Packers' middle-of-the-pack offense (17th of 32, worth about 22.5 points against an average defense). Vikings' middle-of-the-pack offense (19th of 32, worth about 22.2 points against an average defense) meets Packers' below-average defense (22nd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Vikings puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Packers by 13 and Vikings by 21 about 80% of the time.
The Vikings get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Vikings by about 1.2. The game is on CBS.
Result: Packers 22, Vikings 39. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 13.2 points and the total by 13.8.
More: Packers schedule · Vikings schedule · all Week 1 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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