Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Raiders 23, Dolphins 23 at Allegiant Stadium in Week 1. That is a genuine toss-up: Raiders win about 50% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.1 points and 45.3 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Dolphins are 0-3, scoring 12 and allowing 28.7 points per game (-16.7 per game). The Raiders are 3-0, scoring 29.3 and allowing 18 points per game (+11.3 per game).
Raiders' middle-of-the-pack defense (17th) should limit Dolphins' struggling offense (30th of 32, worth about 19.7 points against an average defense). Raiders' below-average offense (23rd of 32, worth about 21.5 points against an average defense) meets Dolphins' below-average defense (25th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Raiders puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Dolphins by 17 and Raiders by 17 about 80% of the time.
The Raiders get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Dolphins would be favoured by 2.5. The game is on FOX.
Result: Dolphins 13, Raiders 27. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 13.9 points and the total by 5.3.
More: Dolphins schedule · Raiders schedule · all Week 1 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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