Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Giants 26, Cowboys 25 at MetLife Stadium in Week 1. That is a genuine toss-up: Giants win about 52% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.6 points and 51.4 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Cowboys are 1-2, scoring 29.3 and allowing 27.3 points per game (+2 per game). The Giants are 2-1, scoring 15.3 and allowing 18.3 points per game (-3 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Cowboys' strong offense (5th of 32, worth about 25.6 points against an average defense) against Giants' middle-of-the-pack defense (14th). Giants' struggling offense (29th of 32, worth about 19.8 points against an average defense) meets Cowboys' struggling defense (32nd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Giants puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Cowboys by 16 and Giants by 18 about 80% of the time.
The Giants get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Cowboys would be favoured by 2. The game is on NBC.
Result: Cowboys 20, Giants 28. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 7.4 points and the total by 3.4.
More: Cowboys schedule · Giants schedule · all Week 1 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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