Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Chiefs 23, Broncos 21 at Arrowhead Stadium in Week 1. That is a genuine toss-up: Chiefs win about 55% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.6 points and 43.4 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Broncos are 2-1, scoring 20 and allowing 23.3 points per game (-3.3 per game). The Chiefs are 3-0, scoring 29.3 and allowing 16.7 points per game (+12.6 per game).
Chiefs' strong defense (5th) should limit Broncos' middle-of-the-pack offense (15th of 32, worth about 22.7 points against an average defense). Expect Chiefs to find it hard going: Broncos' strong defense (7th) outranks Chiefs' middle-of-the-pack offense (13th of 32, worth about 23.5 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Broncos by 15 and Chiefs by 19 about 80% of the time.
The Chiefs get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Broncos would be favoured by 1. The game is on ESPN / ABC.
Result: Broncos 10, Chiefs 31. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 19.4 points and the total by 2.4.
More: Broncos schedule · Chiefs schedule · all Week 1 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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