Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Bills 29, Lions 25 at Highmark Stadium in Week 2. That is a lean: Bills win about 64% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.5 points and 53.5 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Lions are 2-1, scoring 31 and allowing 31.7 points per game (-0.7 per game). The Bills are 3-0, scoring 33.7 and allowing 26 points per game (+7.7 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Lions' elite offense (2nd of 32, worth about 27.3 points against an average defense) against Bills' below-average defense (20th). Bills' elite offense (1st of 32, worth about 28.1 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Lions' struggling defense (29th); that mismatch is where most of Bills' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Lions by 12 and Bills by 21 about 80% of the time.
The Bills get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Bills by about 1.9. The game is on Prime Video.
Result: Lions 31, Bills 41. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 5.5 points and the total by 18.5.
More: Lions schedule · Bills schedule · all Week 2 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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