Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Texans 28, Bengals 23 at Reliant Stadium in Week 2. That is a lean: Texans win about 63% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.2 points and 51 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Bengals are 2-1, scoring 26.7 and allowing 21 points per game (+5.7 per game). The Texans are 0-3, scoring 18 and allowing 25 points per game (-7 per game).
Bengals' strong offense (9th of 32, worth about 25.2 points against an average defense) meets Texans' strong defense (6th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Bengals puts up. Texans' below-average offense (22nd of 32, worth about 21.6 points against an average defense) meets Bengals' below-average defense (24th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Texans puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Bengals by 13 and Texans by 21 about 80% of the time.
The Texans get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Texans by about 1.6. The game is on CBS.
Result: Bengals 20, Texans 6. Bengals won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 18.2 points).
More: Bengals schedule · Texans schedule · all Week 2 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.