Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Buccaneers 24, Browns 18 at Raymond James Stadium in Week 2. That is a solid edge: Buccaneers win about 69% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.2 points and 41.6 combined points.
The Browns are 3-1, scoring 20.3 and allowing 23.8 points per game (-3.5 per game). The Buccaneers are 0-3, scoring 20.7 and allowing 26.3 points per game (-5.6 per game).
Buccaneers' below-average defense (21st) should limit Browns' struggling offense (31st of 32, worth about 19.7 points against an average defense). Buccaneers' middle-of-the-pack offense (16th of 32, worth about 22.7 points against an average defense) meets Browns' middle-of-the-pack defense (16th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Buccaneers puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Browns by 11 and Buccaneers by 23 about 80% of the time.
The Buccaneers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Buccaneers by about 3.6. The game is on CBS.
Result: Browns 23, Buccaneers 19. Browns won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 10.2 points).
More: Browns schedule · Buccaneers schedule · all Week 2 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.