Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Packers 25, Jets 23 at MetLife Stadium in Week 2. That is a genuine toss-up: Packers win about 56% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2 points and 48.3 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Packers are 1-2, scoring 18.7 and allowing 30.3 points per game (-11.6 per game). The Jets are 1-2, scoring 21.3 and allowing 20.3 points per game (+1 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Packers' middle-of-the-pack offense (17th of 32, worth about 22.5 points against an average defense) against Jets' below-average defense (23rd). Packers' below-average defense (22nd) should limit Jets' struggling offense (28th of 32, worth about 19.9 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Packers by 19 and Jets by 15 about 80% of the time.
The Jets get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Packers are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on FOX.
Result: Packers 20, Jets 17. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 1 points and the total by 11.3.
More: Packers schedule · Jets schedule · all Week 2 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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