Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Bears 25, Vikings 23 at Soldier Field in Week 2. That is a genuine toss-up: Bears win about 57% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.1 points and 47.7 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Vikings are 3-0, scoring 23.7 and allowing 13.7 points per game (+10 per game). The Bears are 2-1, scoring 29.7 and allowing 17.7 points per game (+12 per game).
Bears' middle-of-the-pack defense (11th) should limit Vikings' middle-of-the-pack offense (19th of 32, worth about 22.2 points against an average defense). Expect Bears to find it hard going: Vikings' elite defense (1st) outranks Bears' middle-of-the-pack offense (10th of 32, worth about 25.1 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Vikings by 15 and Bears by 19 about 80% of the time.
The Bears get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Vikings would be favoured by 0.5. The game is on FOX.
Result: Vikings 9, Bears 3. Vikings won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 8.1 points).
More: Vikings schedule · Bears schedule · all Week 2 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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