Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Ravens 28, Saints 20 at M&T Bank Stadium in Week 2. That is a solid edge: Ravens win about 75% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8.5 points and 48.1 combined points.
The Saints are 1-2, scoring 27 and allowing 27.7 points per game (-0.7 per game). The Ravens are 2-1, scoring 30.7 and allowing 26 points per game (+4.7 per game).
Expect Saints to find it hard going: Ravens' middle-of-the-pack defense (15th) outranks Saints' below-average offense (20th of 32, worth about 21.9 points against an average defense). Ravens' strong offense (4th of 32, worth about 25.7 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Saints' middle-of-the-pack defense (18th); that mismatch is where most of Ravens' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Saints by 8 and Ravens by 25 about 80% of the time.
The Ravens get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Ravens by about 5.9. The game is on CBS.
Result: Saints 24, Ravens 17. Saints won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 15.5 points).
More: Saints schedule · Ravens schedule · all Week 2 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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