Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Eagles 26, Titans 17 at Nissan Stadium in Week 2. That is a solid edge: Eagles win about 74% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8.1 points and 42.9 combined points.
The Eagles are 2-1, scoring 18.3 and allowing 23 points per game (-4.7 per game). The Titans are 0-3, scoring 12.3 and allowing 19.7 points per game (-7.4 per game).
Eagles' below-average offense (21st of 32, worth about 21.8 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Titans' below-average defense (26th); that mismatch is where most of Eagles' projected points come from. Expect Titans to find it hard going: Eagles' strong defense (8th) outranks Titans' struggling offense (32nd of 32, worth about 18.3 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Eagles by 25 and Titans by 9 about 80% of the time.
The Titans get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Eagles are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on FOX.
Result: Eagles 24, Titans 20. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 4.1 points and the total by 1.1.
More: Eagles schedule · Titans schedule · all Week 2 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.