Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Jaguars 23, Broncos 21 at Empower Field at Mile High in Week 2. That is a genuine toss-up: Jaguars win about 57% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.2 points and 43.8 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Jaguars are 2-1, scoring 27.3 and allowing 12 points per game (+15.3 per game). The Broncos are 2-1, scoring 20 and allowing 23.3 points per game (-3.3 per game).
Jaguars' strong offense (6th of 32, worth about 25.5 points against an average defense) meets Broncos' strong defense (7th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Jaguars puts up. Expect Broncos to find it hard going: Jaguars' strong defense (4th) outranks Broncos' middle-of-the-pack offense (15th of 32, worth about 22.7 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Jaguars by 19 and Broncos by 15 about 80% of the time.
The Broncos get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Jaguars are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBS.
Result: Jaguars 13, Broncos 20. Broncos won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 9.2 points).
More: Jaguars schedule · Broncos schedule · all Week 2 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.