Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Chargers 25, Raiders 21 at SoFi Stadium in Week 2. That is a lean: Chargers win about 63% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.1 points and 45.1 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Raiders are 3-0, scoring 29.3 and allowing 18 points per game (+11.3 per game). The Chargers are 0-3, scoring 14.7 and allowing 25.3 points per game (-10.6 per game).
Expect Raiders to find it hard going: Chargers' middle-of-the-pack defense (12th) outranks Raiders' below-average offense (23rd of 32, worth about 21.5 points against an average defense). Raiders' middle-of-the-pack defense (17th) should limit Chargers' below-average offense (27th of 32, worth about 19.9 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Raiders by 13 and Chargers by 21 about 80% of the time.
The Chargers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Chargers by about 1.5. The game is on CBS.
Result: Raiders 26, Chargers 14. Raiders won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 16.1 points).
More: Raiders schedule · Chargers schedule · all Week 2 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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