Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected 49ers 29, Dolphins 18 at Levi's Stadium in Week 2. That is a solid edge: 49ers win about 79% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 10.4 points and 46.9 combined points.
The Dolphins are 0-3, scoring 12 and allowing 28.7 points per game (-16.7 per game). The 49ers are 3-0, scoring 32.7 and allowing 16.7 points per game (+16 per game).
49ers' middle-of-the-pack defense (10th) should limit Dolphins' struggling offense (30th of 32, worth about 19.7 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: 49ers' elite offense (3rd of 32, worth about 25.9 points against an average defense) against Dolphins' below-average defense (25th).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Dolphins by 7 and 49ers by 27 about 80% of the time.
The 49ers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour 49ers by about 7.8. The game is on FOX.
Result: Dolphins 13, 49ers 35. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 11.6 points and the total by 1.1.
More: Dolphins schedule · 49ers schedule · all Week 2 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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