Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Seahawks 25, Cardinals 20 at State Farm Stadium in Week 2. That is a lean: Seahawks win about 64% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.4 points and 45 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Seahawks are 2-1, scoring 25 and allowing 16.7 points per game (+8.3 per game). The Cardinals are 1-2, scoring 21 and allowing 27 points per game (-6 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Seahawks' strong offense (7th of 32, worth about 25.4 points against an average defense) against Cardinals' struggling defense (28th). Seahawks' elite defense (2nd) should limit Cardinals' middle-of-the-pack offense (18th of 32, worth about 22.4 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Seahawks by 21 and Cardinals by 13 about 80% of the time.
The Cardinals get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Seahawks are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on FOX.
Result: Seahawks 31, Cardinals 7. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 19.6 points and the total by 7.
More: Seahawks schedule · Cardinals schedule · all Week 2 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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