Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Chiefs 27, Colts 21 at Arrowhead Stadium in Week 2. That is a solid edge: Chiefs win about 70% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.5 points and 48.1 combined points.
The Colts are 1-2, scoring 24 and allowing 30.3 points per game (-6.3 per game). The Chiefs are 3-0, scoring 29.3 and allowing 16.7 points per game (+12.6 per game).
Expect Colts to find it hard going: Chiefs' strong defense (5th) outranks Colts' middle-of-the-pack offense (11th of 32, worth about 24.8 points against an average defense). Chiefs' middle-of-the-pack offense (13th of 32, worth about 23.5 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Colts' struggling defense (30th); that mismatch is where most of Chiefs' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Colts by 10 and Chiefs by 23 about 80% of the time.
The Chiefs get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Chiefs by about 3.9. The game is on NBC.
Result: Colts 30, Chiefs 33. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 3.5 points and the total by 14.9.
More: Colts schedule · Chiefs schedule · all Week 2 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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