Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Packers 26, Falcons 19 at Lambeau Field in Week 3. That is a solid edge: Packers win about 72% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.4 points and 45 combined points.
The Falcons are 1-2, scoring 17 and allowing 22.7 points per game (-5.7 per game). The Packers are 1-2, scoring 18.7 and allowing 30.3 points per game (-11.6 per game).
Packers' below-average defense (22nd) should limit Falcons' below-average offense (26th of 32, worth about 20.7 points against an average defense). Packers' middle-of-the-pack offense (17th of 32, worth about 22.5 points against an average defense) meets Falcons' middle-of-the-pack defense (19th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Packers puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Falcons by 10 and Packers by 24 about 80% of the time.
The Packers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Packers by about 4.8. The game is on Prime Video.
Result: Falcons 35, Packers 14. Falcons won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 28.4 points).
More: Falcons schedule · Packers schedule · all Week 3 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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