NFL Week 3 Predictions & Projected Scores (2026)

Updated Oct 2, 2026

Week 3 of the 2026 NFL season has 16 games on our board. The closest projected matchup is Texans at Colts (0.2-point margin), the highest projected total is Ravens at Cowboys (53 points) and the lowest is Panthers at Browns (42.1). 6 games are rated a toss-up (neither side above 58%).

16 games have finished so far: the model picked the winner in 10 of them (63%).

Power rankings · Playoff predictions · How accurate are we?

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Every game

FinalPrime Video
Falcons19final 35
Packers26final 14
Final: Falcons 35, Packers 14. We projected Packers 26-19 (72%) — the model missed this one.
Game-time weather: 61°F, Wind 5 mph.Recorded at kickoff · nflverse
Our number
GB by 7.4
Total 45
Closing consensus
GB -4.5
Total 43.5
Our number — GB by 7.4 · Total 45 | Closing consensus — GB -4.5 · Total 43.5
Final ATL by 21. ATL covered the spread. 49 points — over the 43.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
Line: Closing consensus via nflverse closing lines, Sep 26, 10:34 AM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Packers 72% · total 45Full preview →
FinalFOX
Chargers20final 16
Bills28final 24
Final: Chargers 16, Bills 24. We projected Bills 28-20 (75%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: 68°F, Wind 12 mph.Recorded at kickoff · nflverse
Our number
BUF by 8.7
Total 47.9
DraftKings
BUF -7
Total 50.5
Our number — BUF by 8.7 · Total 47.9 | DraftKings — BUF -7 · Total 50.5
Final BUF by 8. BUF covered the spread. 40 points — under the 50.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Sep 27, 12:52 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Bills 75% · total 47.9Full preview →
FinalFOX
Panthers21final 18
Browns22final 21
Final: Panthers 18, Browns 21. We projected Browns 22-21 (53%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: 68°F, Wind 12 mph.Recorded at kickoff · nflverse
Our number
CLE by 0.9
Total 42.1
DraftKings
CAR -2.5
Total 41.5
Our number — CLE by 0.9 · Total 42.1 | DraftKings — CAR -2.5 · Total 41.5
Final CLE by 3. CLE covered the spread. 39 points — under the 41.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Sep 27, 12:52 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Browns 53% · total 42.1Full preview →
FinalFOX
Jets22final 24
Lions30final 31
Final: Jets 24, Lions 31. We projected Lions 30-22 (73%) — winner called correctly.
Indoors (dome).
Our number
DET by 7.8
Total 51.6
DraftKings
DET -7
Total 49.5
Our number — DET by 7.8 · Total 51.6 | DraftKings — DET -7 · Total 49.5
Final DET by 7. The spread was a push. 55 points — over the 49.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Sep 27, 12:52 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Lions 73% · total 51.6Full preview →
FinalCBS
Texans24final 17
Colts25final 19
Final: Texans 17, Colts 19. We projected Colts 25-24 (50%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: 72°F, Wind 7 mph N.Observed near kickoff · National Weather Service
Our number
Even
Total 48.9
DraftKings
HOU -1.5
Total 41.5
Our number — Even · Total 48.9 | DraftKings — HOU -1.5 · Total 41.5
Final IND by 2. IND covered the spread. 36 points — under the 41.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Sep 27, 12:52 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Colts 50% · total 48.9Full preview →
FinalCBS
Chiefs26final 24
Dolphins20final 10
Final: Chiefs 24, Dolphins 10. We projected Chiefs 26-20 (70%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: 86°F, Wind 5 mph.Recorded at kickoff · nflverse
Our number
KC by 6.4
Total 45.6
DraftKings
KC -10
Total 45.5
Our number — KC by 6.4 · Total 45.6 | DraftKings — KC -10 · Total 45.5
Final KC by 14. KC covered the spread. 34 points — under the 45.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Sep 27, 12:52 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Chiefs 70% · total 45.6Full preview →
FinalCBS
Titans19final 7
Giants23final 12
Final: Titans 7, Giants 12. We projected Giants 23-19 (64%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: 62°F, Wind 10 mph.Recorded at kickoff · nflverse
Our number
NYG by 4.4
Total 42.5
DraftKings
NYG -2.5
Total 37.5
Our number — NYG by 4.4 · Total 42.5 | DraftKings — NYG -2.5 · Total 37.5
Final NYG by 5. NYG covered the spread. 19 points — under the 37.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Sep 27, 12:52 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Giants 64% · total 42.5Full preview →
FinalCBS
Bengals22final 27
Steelers22final 30
Final: Bengals 27, Steelers 30. We projected Bengals 22-22 (52%) — the model missed this one.
Game-time weather: 70°F, Wind 12 mph.Recorded at kickoff · nflverse
Our number
CIN by 0.7
Total 44
DraftKings
CIN -3.5
Total 42.5
Our number — CIN by 0.7 · Total 44 | DraftKings — CIN -3.5 · Total 42.5
Final PIT by 3. PIT covered the spread. 57 points — over the 42.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Sep 27, 12:52 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Bengals 52% · total 43.9Full preview →

FinalFOX
Seahawks26final 31
Commanders18final 33
Final: Seahawks 31, Commanders 33. We projected Seahawks 26-18 (72%) — the model missed this one.
Game-time weather: 63°F, Wind 13 mph.Recorded at kickoff · nflverse
Our number
SEA by 7.1
Total 43.9
DraftKings
SEA -8.5
Total 40.5
Our number — SEA by 7.1 · Total 43.9 | DraftKings — SEA -8.5 · Total 40.5
Final WAS by 2. WAS covered the spread. 64 points — over the 40.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Sep 27, 12:52 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Seahawks 72% · total 43.9Full preview →
FinalCBS
Patriots21final 6
Jaguars22final 35
Final: Patriots 6, Jaguars 35. We projected Jaguars 22-21 (53%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: 80°F, Wind 7 mph.Recorded at kickoff · nflverse
Our number
JAX by 1
Total 42.5
DraftKings
JAX -3
Total 46.5
Our number — JAX by 1 · Total 42.5 | DraftKings — JAX -3 · Total 46.5
Final JAX by 29. JAX covered the spread. 41 points — under the 46.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Sep 27, 12:52 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Jaguars 53% · total 42.5Full preview →
FinalFOX
Cardinals18final 30
49ers30final 36
Final: Cardinals 30, 49ers 36. We projected 49ers 30-18 (82%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: 70°F, Wind 4 mph.Recorded at kickoff · nflverse
Our number
SF by 11.8
Total 47.7
DraftKings
SF -7.5
Total 48.5
Our number — SF by 11.8 · Total 47.7 | DraftKings — SF -7.5 · Total 48.5
Final SF by 6. ARI covered the spread. 66 points — over the 48.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Sep 27, 3:52 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
49ers 82% · total 47.6Full preview →
FinalFOX
Vikings24final 23
Buccaneers19final 16
Final: Vikings 23, Buccaneers 16. We projected Vikings 24-19 (66%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: 84°F, Wind 7 mph.Recorded at kickoff · nflverse
Our number
MIN by 5.1
Total 42.8
DraftKings
MIN -1.5
Total 42.5
Our number — MIN by 5.1 · Total 42.8 | DraftKings — MIN -1.5 · Total 42.5
Final MIN by 7. MIN covered the spread. 39 points — under the 42.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Sep 27, 3:52 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Vikings 66% · total 42.8Full preview →
FinalCBS
Ravens29final 34
Cowboys25final 31
Final: Ravens 34, Cowboys 31. We projected Ravens 29-25 (63%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: 77°F, Wind 7 mph.Recorded at kickoff for Rio de Janeiro · nflverse
Our number
BAL by 4
Total 53
DraftKings
BAL -3
Total 53.5
Our number — BAL by 4 · Total 53 | DraftKings — BAL -3 · Total 53.5
Final BAL by 3. The spread was a push. 65 points — over the 53.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Sep 27, 3:52 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Ravens 63% · total 53Full preview →
FinalCBS
Raiders21final 35
Saints24final 27
Final: Raiders 35, Saints 27. We projected Saints 24-21 (59%) — the model missed this one.
Indoors (dome).
Our number
NO by 2.9
Total 45.7
DraftKings
NO -3.5
Total 43.5
Our number — NO by 2.9 · Total 45.7 | DraftKings — NO -3.5 · Total 43.5
Final LV by 8. LV covered the spread. 62 points — over the 43.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Sep 27, 3:52 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Saints 59% · total 45.7Full preview →
FinalNBC
Rams22final 26
Broncos22final 30
Final: Rams 26, Broncos 30. We projected Rams 22-22 (52%) — the model missed this one.
Game-time weather: 83°F, Wind 10 mph.Recorded at kickoff · nflverse
Our number
LA by 0.5
Total 44.4
DraftKings
LA -1.5
Total 44.5
Our number — LA by 0.5 · Total 44.4 | DraftKings — LA -1.5 · Total 44.5
Final DEN by 4. DEN covered the spread. 56 points — over the 44.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Sep 27, 7:26 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Rams 52% · total 44.3Full preview →
FinalESPN / ABC
Eagles23final 7
Bears21final 27
Final: Eagles 7, Bears 27. We projected Eagles 23-21 (55%) — the model missed this one.
Game-time weather: 64°F, Wind 3 mph.Recorded at kickoff · nflverse
Our number
PHI by 1.7
Total 44.1
DraftKings
PHI -3.5
Total 42.5
Our number — PHI by 1.7 · Total 44.1 | DraftKings — PHI -3.5 · Total 42.5
Final CHI by 20. CHI covered the spread. 34 points — under the 42.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Sep 28, 7:28 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Eagles 55% · total 44.1Full preview →

How these numbers are made

Each team gets offense and defense ratings in points and in expected points added per play, adjusted for opponent strength and started from last season's ratings regressed toward average. Quarterback changes, home field and travel, rest and weather are added with weights fitted on past seasons, and the margin becomes a calibrated win probability. The book line under each game (DraftKings when available, otherwise the consensus or the first book, each named with its source) is neutral market data shown for comparison. See methodology and track record and the season scorecard for how the model has actually done.

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