Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Bengals 22, Steelers 22 at Acrisure Stadium in Week 3. That is a genuine toss-up: Bengals win about 52% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.7 points and 43.9 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Bengals are 2-1, scoring 26.7 and allowing 21 points per game (+5.7 per game). The Steelers are 2-2, scoring 19.3 and allowing 21.8 points per game (-2.5 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Bengals' strong offense (9th of 32, worth about 25.2 points against an average defense) against Steelers' middle-of-the-pack defense (13th). Steelers' below-average offense (24th of 32, worth about 21.5 points against an average defense) meets Bengals' below-average defense (24th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Steelers puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Bengals by 18 and Steelers by 16 about 80% of the time.
The Steelers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Bengals are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBS.
Result: Bengals 27, Steelers 30. Steelers won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 3.7 points).
More: Bengals schedule · Steelers schedule · all Week 3 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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